Russia vs. Market

If there was ever a week that could be fueled by headline after headline it will likely be this week. Of course we have the potential for the unexpected or unplanned news about the Russia and Ukraine situation, which would open the door for the US to say or do something in return. Typically in these types of situations the market gets a sharp move, fear goes thru the roof and then in a week or so it is all basically forgotten. Which I would say is certainly possible with this current situation as well, but there are some economic numbers coming out this week that could play a different role in how this plays out.

The market last week was one of the strangest weeks and trading days I have seen in a really long time. 4587.75 still has not been tested even though we were just a couple points away…again. 4446.75 however was broken to the downside on Friday and that opens the door for much lower prices. We also have a potential weekly sell in place here which IF it triggers will give us a weekly lower high, and a potential weekly trend change would not be a good thing for this market. With earnings season almost over with the exception of some names like $SHOP $NVDA $DKNG $PLTR $ROKU I’m not expecting any of them to be able to save this market here. There is a part of me here that thinks with all of the headline risk and bearish sentiment across the board that the market could just pull a big ol FU to the majority here and reverse back to highs. What I know for certain here though is that I’m not interested in trying to catch a falling knife or stepping in front of a short cover rally.

As for levels on the week I’m watching 4330.75 – 4308 on the downside for potential target areas. IF somehow we do manage to get back up over 4501.50 then I’ll start looking at a potential trend change there and the FU to the majority could really get some legs to it. Early on this week I’m not going to be looking to do much in the indices overall as I’m expecting a small bounce here into Monday then an attempt lower that fails, takes out stops on shorts, and then finally makes the move after that. Those early week chop moves I think are highly likely here, and I want to avoid those at all costs. Waiting for levels to trade here and give some type of confirmation may be the boring trade, but I’m ok with being bored instead of losing money.

All 4 Levels: http://tos.mx/jcqTiXG

$AMD – This one treated us nicely last week, and after a hard selloff here it has a LIS at 111.33. $NVDA earnings are this week and I would expect some sympathy from that, but above/below that line I’m open to longs or shorts.

Strength in this market is a really hard thing to find at the moment. Gap ups are getting sold, and gap downs are getting continuation so just be cautious on trying to catch a falling knife.