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6/30/24 – Sunday Stock Talk Write Up

What does the market have in store for us this upcoming week? What are the important support & resistance levels to be aware of? Read the Sunday Stock Talk Write Up to find out.

Q3 Ahead

What are the thoughts, and top of mind items as we get ready to kick off a new quarter? It’s not just a ‘normal’ start to the new quarter though as we have a holiday in the middle of the week again with July 4th. Merica. This means that the markets will likely be slow into the end of the day on Wednesday, closed on Thursday, and then probably will be like watching paint dry on Friday. That means we have Monday & Tuesday with some decent potential, but at the moment I think the chart needs a bit more time than that, so it looks like the type of week where I might take a trade. I also might not do anything at all, and I’m completely fine if that ends up being the case as well.

When it comes to levels we can take a look at the $SPY again, and we have 543.61 below which on a break gives us room into that 540.88 level. Similar to last week I think we might try to hold on Monday, and crack towards the lower level on Tuesday, but IF we do hold I’m not interested in longs until we get up over 549.52 and given the current overnight action I don’t think that will be on the bingo card for tomorrow. A weak attempt at holding tomorrow that gets erased on Tuesday, and takes out the level to the downside puts a potential short on the board, but a lot of things have to come together for that trade to happen.

^ With the current market thought process in mind that we ‘should’ get a bit of a pullback from here this also means that I’m not really interested in any individual equities to the long side.

In the $QQQ we have levels at 477.69 and then nothing until 464.50 which could get interesting. That 477.69 is also the level that could set the lows for the week, so there will likely be a bit of a battle that takes place at that level.

IF, and it’s a big IF that we need a long from those lower support levels in the other indices then the $IWM will be where I’d be interested. A rally up over 202.96 is technically all we need for a rally up into 207.03, but I’d prefer to time it with some type of divergence or level test out of the other indices. I wouldn’t really get interested in shorts until under 200.4.

$DIA can be played in either direction, but longs would need over 393.48, and shorts under 389.56 but I would be careful of the first break in either direction being a fakeout, and then we just continue to chop inside of that range.

There isn’t a lot coming together for the indices this week at least.

There is the potential that GC can get a rally if it’s able to get up over 2347.20, but on a 1st test of that level you could also look for shorts that take it down into 2302.4 from there.

Bitcoin ‘IF’ it can hold into tomorrow morning will be getting a nice gap to the upside. I want to let Monday trade in there, but Tuesday could present some opportunity in there, and I’ll get levels and all sent out in the Write Up if it does decide to present us with something.

Crude oil has seen a nice rally over the last 3 weeks, but right here I don’t think there is much to do with it. At some point it probably cracks under 80 before it makes a move up towards 87 area. If we did manage to get under 78 then I would say we could see a move towards those lows at 72 and probably then some.

Bonds had a pretty ugly day on Friday, and at the moment they look like they want to try and push a bit lower, but if/when we do get back above 119.19 in here then I think it’s possible we see bonds up into the 133 area going into the end of the year.

$CAT – I like the possibility of a move up into 342.96 in here, but would like to see how Monday sets up, and see if we could get a daily 1-2-3 in place for it.

$MRNA – The chart in here looks really ugly, but it’s one of those names I don’t really trust much, and likely won’t touch on a short week, but at some point this thing looks like it’s going to get smacked.

$PANW – This was a BIG one from last week, and ideally this thing does absolutely nothing on the week, and just goes sideways.

$SMCI – Another name I probably don’t want to trade on a short week, but under 814.92 there is a TON of room open to the downside, and we could even see a 700 print especially if the markets give up their support levels, so it makes the list.

$WHR – There is some interest in a long in here if we can get up over 102.6 with targets into 108.85. I’m not entirely sure what the news is that caused the gap up last week, but so far it’s holding it, and could get continuation this week.

The goal of this week is to just win each and every day. That’s not to be confused with me having a green day each day this week. It means that I just have to respect my rules, and stay disciplined for just the day. Tomorrow will be a new day, and if there is no trade today, then maybe we see one tomorrow, but either way it’s still a win on the day. Let’s have a great week, and enjoy some even better times with friends and family on July 4th.

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