8/20/23 – Sunday Stock Talk Write Up
It is officially/unofficially the end of earnings season this upcoming week. The last few bigger names on the board report this week, and sort of wrap us up. There are a couple decent names in the list like $BIDU $LOW $ZM & $AAP but all eyes will be on $NVDA. Will it have an outstanding quarter and gap up to new all time highs like it did 3 months ago, or we work down into that gap which is sub 380? This is the question of the week.
As for the overall markets I’m going to look at the $SPY for tonight and give out some levels there. We have had a pretty decent move lower over the last 3 trading weeks, and at some point here I would expect that we do try and bounce a bit. If that is to be the case then I think we have to test a lower level first, so here are my scenarios for the week.
1. An open pretty unchanged tomorrow that can test 435.55 and hold it into the close.
IF this can happen then it gives us room up into 440.38 as a first target.
2. We lose 435.55 on the week, and it opens the door for 430.65 to trade.
This can happen also on Tuesday if scenario #1 plays out first tomorrow.
3. IF we do trade 430.65 I would be looking for longs on a first test. The potential is that we then trade from there up into 440.38.
4. IF we trade 440.38 then on a rejection I would be looking for some weakness, and the potential for a 430.65 test from it.
In conclusion, if we can get any of these scenarios to play out it provides us with about $5 – $10 worth of movement in one direction, and potentially the other direction as well. Patience for this to play out over the course of this week is going to be critical. If I had to put a timetable on it then hopefully on Tuesday/Wednesday we would be able to set the potential bottom or top based on how we trade from 435.55.
$AMAT from earnings and some relative strength on Friday will be on watch.
$BA on weakness has room into 218.50, but will need to get under 225.46 first. Ideally it trades up over 227.31 first and then can break 225.46 later in the week with a market turn that we have yet to see?
$BIDU earnings are this week, and if it decides to keep dropping then it could get really ugly to the downside, but also potentially so extended that it becomes a long.
$CRWD held pretty well, and with $SNOW reporting on Wednesday this could see some sympathy to whatever move happens in there. *I think they are along the same lines.
$DE on the other hand had some relative weakness on Friday from earnings, and on a retest of 403.46 that sets up a 1-2-3 on the daily it could have some more room lower.
*$PANW had a really nice, but weird after hours earnings on Friday so the levels in there are 226.12 – 234.45. A pullback to 226.12 would be the best case scenario, but over 234.45 it has room to move, and will be a top watch.
There will be some opportunities this week, but let’s make sure we stay patient for the trades to come to us.
A quick side note. Applications for the upcoming Mentorship are currently open, but they are filling up, and will close out on Tuesday of this week. There is a button below if you did want to apply.