8/27/23 – Sunday Stock Talk Write Up
Hold or Not
The big question going into this week is whether the market i.e $SPY will be able to hold here or do we take another stab lower? At the end of the day on Thursday everyone was thinking lower, but after Friday with a decent bit of a bounce is the market really going to go lower? There is a valid reason for either direction here, and if you want to make it even a bit more of a sit on hands type of decision then look at the $IWM & $DIA. They are telling a bit of a different story compared to the $SPY & $QQQ.
We do have a couple of levels to guide us for the week though, and one of them was a major player last week. That is 435.55 and it held up twice last week with pretty decent bounces. A third test of that level this week, and it likely breaks below, and takes us into 430.65. If that is going to happen on the week though I’m expecting us to try and go higher the first part of the week though.
My general conclusion here for the overall markets is that we need a bit more data, or get under 435.55 for shorts.
In the commodity world we held 78.19 really well in Crude oil last week, and any uptrend on the week can likely be bought. A break under 78.19 and longs would be off the table though. Bonds have the first weekly green bar in quite some time. Under 119.17 this week would make sense, and then probably fail on a downtrend for us to get a bit more of a bounce.
A couple of names on watch from the earnings calendar will be $CRWD $CRM $OKTA $CHWY $FIVE $DG $AVGO $LULU
$CAR – This is not a normal name to watch, but it looks like it wants to continue this move lower and get down towards 200.
$DIS – This finally broke down under 85.22 last week, and appears to want to break the 80 number this week IF we can get a market breakdown.
$CVNA – This isn’t a typical name for me to look at, but over 43.31 with confirmation and a market moving in our favor it opens up the door for 47-50 as a target.
$IBM – One of the slowest moving names on the board, but the weekly chart right now actually looks really good, and held in the face of all the selling last Thursday.
$NFLX – I’m not interesting in longs until we get over 433.12, but if that weekly bar decides to get erased then we open the door for ALOT of room lower.
$PANW – On a test of 226.12 this week that can bounce and work back into an uptrend then I like longs with a market in our favor.
$RH – I want to get some more data on this, because it is 3 weeks down, but I like the potential for lower in here.
$TEAM – I still like this name for longs, but would like to see a bit more data. Otherwise I’m going to continue to wait for 202.17 to break at some point with room up into 213.57.
There are a couple of good watches on the list at the moment, but almost everything will need the market, and for the overall market we need a bit more data. Let’s take it slow this week, and see if we decide to hold or not.