9/10/23 – Sunday Stock Talk Write Up
Futures Rollover & OPEX
Will it be a tricky week with a shake out or two in store for us? That is the typical norm for this type of week. Where we have futures rolling over from the U to Z contract, and monthly OPEX. Last week was potentially just getting us prepared for the type of whippy action we might see this week. With that being said there were some decent opportunities last week, but a good number of intraday reversals as well even on names that looked super clean, and had made an initial move.
Since it is futures rollover I’m going to be looking at the $SPY and putting some levels together around it. The higher timeframe charts here, are saying that we have the potential to hold and work our way back up towards 450+. Will it take a retest of the lows from last week, and a slight push below first is going to be the question. If that is to be the case then down into 441.21 on a hold that manages to get back above the 443ish area on a reaction would have me looking for potential swing longs into the end of the week. That lower test of 441.21 would have to happen on Monday or Tuesday though.
An initial move higher this week up into the 446.86 level that fails and takes us down under 444.43 would be pretty ugly, and 441.21 would probably fail to hold, and then we open the door for 438.14. Which level we manage to hold first, and how we trade into the next will be crucial to watch for the week.
If we can rally above 446.86 and confirm then longs would be on the table initially, but wouldn’t be surprised to see a midweek shake if that was to happen on Monday or Tuesday. The area in which I will sit on my hands is if we do manage to stay between 444.43 – 446.86.
$QQQ is pretty much the same, and the levels are 371.48 – 374.51.
$IWM is the problem child at the moment, and looks like it wants no part in any kind of rally. Continued weakness in there this week will make it tough to trust longs in the other indices. It is also the reason why if we rally early on this week, and that fails in the $SPY or $QQQ it would keep me from trying longs from initial support.
Monday & Tuesday we have no red impact news folders on the calendar
$AAPL – The weekly chart isn’t exactly screaming at me to go long, but up over 179.82 I would be interested on the long side with the market in our favor. Otherwise I’m going to let it develop some more data.
$ABNB – Really good strength out of this name last week, and it’s ability to hold even with the down move in the indices. It will need to provide an entry which it doesn’t have at the moment.
$AMZN – Higher timeframe charts in here look good for a rally to the upside, so wait for the market in our favor, and relative strength in here ‘should’ present itself.
$CRM – A push into 230 would make sense this week. First initial level for pullbacks is 223.64, and then 221.52 if that doesn’t hold.
$ENPH – Weakness in here is real, and with OPEX coming up I’m slightly interested in a potential for the push down into a 100 whole number pin. It’s a pretty big move, but going to keep this one on watch for the week at a minimum.
$NVDA – The main level to watch this week is 453.55. A failure of that level, and I’m interested in shorts with a potential target down into 419.12. There is plenty of room for this to move below there as well, and if the market tries higher first, and fails, and we get real weakness then 402.58 would be my target for the week. ALOT of things have to come together on this one first, but it looks possible. First step would be breaking the level, so let it do that first.
$RH – A big move down on Friday from earnings, and it would be really tough to think it just finds strength after that. A rally back to 314.10 that rejects on the first attempt, and we could see a move lower from there.